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In Vitro Fertilization Probabilities w/ Binomial Expansion: HELP HELP!!! - Math Lovers United

About In Vitro Fertilization Probabilities w/ Binomial Expansion: HELP HELP!!!

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From:js_africanus
Date:January 21st, 2009 03:53 pm (UTC)

Re: Independent Eggs

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...and I've been in a standardisation meeting where the chair insisted that the question of whether a pure Poisson process is time stationary be put to a vote....

That's insane.

[pissy, grumpy mode]

I'd be more sympathetic if I weren't dealing with a shopping-center application where the traffic engineer is trying to help the developer kill people by basing designs on a traffic volume regression of four data points, three of which are dominated by an outlier.

Honestly, it beggars belief — talk some sense into traffic engineers for me, will 'ya? Here's how it works for them. Choose a land use. Then sit and count peak-hour traffic for that land use. Do that a few times and run a regression of traffic against size on those results. Now the coefficient on size becomes a strictly deterministic Fact, with a capital eff, and is treated as such.

[/pissy, grumpy mode]

Anywho, be well!
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From:digitig
Date:January 21st, 2009 04:45 pm (UTC)

Re: Independent Eggs

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Honestly, it beggars belief — talk some sense into traffic engineers for me, will 'ya? Here's how it works for them. Choose a land use. Then sit and count peak-hour traffic for that land use. Do that a few times and run a regression of traffic against size on those results. Now the coefficient on size becomes a strictly deterministic Fact, with a capital eff, and is treated as such.
Well, of course, it is a strictly deterministic fact, the question is, what fact? For one thing, it's an expected value of the coefficient on size, which will have confidence bounds (I've often thrown people who insist I demonstrate that the probability of an undesired event is less than some specified value into a spin by asking them "to what confidence do I need to demonstrate it?") And it's the expected value at the times the observation was made -- is it subject to diurnal or seasonal variation? And so on. But it is a strictly deterministic fact, just not the one that they want. Anyway, we seem to have strayed from probability into statistics :-)
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From:js_africanus
Date:January 21st, 2009 05:10 pm (UTC)

Re: Independent Eggs

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Have you heard about the engineer who lived around the time of the French Revolution? People who felt they were being guillotined unjustly would lie down facing upward, and if the guillotine didn't work, it was considered providence of God and they were spared. So when an unjustly condemned engineer followed a few people who were spared, he looked up at the mechanism, saw what was wrong with it, and explained how to fix it...
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From:digitig
Date:January 21st, 2009 06:09 pm (UTC)

Re: Independent Eggs

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That "engineer" would be Malabonce in the 1966 Carry On film "Don't Lose Your Head", wouldn't it?
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From:js_africanus
Date:January 21st, 2009 07:02 pm (UTC)

Re: Independent Eggs

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I couldn't say. My uncle, an engineer, told me the story when I was a little kid, and I think it was supposed to illustrate the ethos of the engineer.
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